Pengaruh KPR terhadap Keterjangkauan Harga Properti Residensial

Authors

  • Pihri Buhaerah Pusat Penelitian Ekonomi LIPI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v3i3.527

Abstract

Abstract

This paper describes and examines the linkage of house mortgages on residential property price growth in Indonesia by using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative research approach is used to elaborate descriptively the role of house mortgages on residential property prices. To strengthen it, this study then employs one of time series regression analyses namely autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period of 2002Q1-2017Q4. To achieve the objective of this study, data was collected from secondary sources such as Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The qualitative approach shows that under lack of land banking and public housing zones, the expansion of house mortgages affect positively residential property prices both for private and public housing.  The argument has been confirmed from regression analysis by using the ARDL model. The estimation results using the ARDL model show that there is a positive and significant relationship between house mortgage on residential property price growth both in the long-run and in the short-run.

 

Keywords: house mortgage, property residential prices, land, ARDL model

JEL Classification: C22, E51, G21

 

 

Abstrak

Studi ini membahas secara deskriptif dan empiris peran pembiayaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Pendekatan kualitatif digunakan untuk menggambarkan secara deskriptif peran pembiyaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial. Selanjutnya, untuk memperkuat argument tersebut, studi ini kemudian melibatkan salah satu teknik analisis regresi data runtun waktu yaitu model autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) untuk periode 2002Q1-2017Q4. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian, data dikumpulkan dari beragam sumber data sekunder seperti Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasilnya, dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif menunjukkan bahwa tanpa pelembagaan bank tanah dan zonasi khusus perumahan rakyat, skema pembiayaan kepemilikan rumah hanya akan melambungkan harga properti residensial. Argumen ini juga terkonfirmasi dari analisis regresi dengan menggunakan model ARDL. Hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan model ARDL menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara kredit kepemilikan rumah dengan harga property residensial baik untuk jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.

 

 

Kata Kunci: Kredit pemilikan rumah, harga properti residensial, tanah, model ARDL

JEL Classification: C22, E51, G21

 

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Published

2019-12-31

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 3 (2019)

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