Determinan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia Pendekatan Vektor Autoregresif

Authors

  • Rudi Handoko

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v19i2.139

Keywords:

Indonesia, neraca pembayaran, neraca transaksi berjalan, sektor eksternal, Vector Autoregression

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antar variabel yang dikategorikan sebagai determinan neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia.Dengan menggunakan pendekatan Vector Autoregression(VAR), penelitian ini membangun sebuah sistem dinamis yang terdiri atas enam variabel yaitu neraca transaksi berjalan, indeks pertumbuhan ekonomi mitra dagang utama (MTP), indeks harga komoditas (COMPI), nilai tukar efektif riil (REER), permintaan domestik (DOMD) dan suku bunga kebijakan bank sentral (BIR) sebagai determinan neraca transaksi berjalan. Analisa dengan menggunakan impulse response function menunjukkan bahwa neraca transaksi berjalan cenderung memberikan respons negatif terhadap shockyang terjadi pada variabel MTP, COMPI, REER dan DOMD.Di sisi lain, shock, neraca transaksi berjalan bereaksi positif terhadap shockdi variabel BIR. Analisa dengan menggunakan forecast error variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa shock neraca transaksi berjalan menjelaskan sebagian besar fluktuasi neraca transaksi berjalan, yang diikuti oleh permintaan domestik, harga komoditas, dan suku bunga kebijakan moneter (BI rate). Adanya keterkaitan hubungan antaradeterminan neraca transaksi berjalan menunjukkan pentingnya sinkroninasi kebijakan ekonomi untuk memperbaiki kinerja neraca transaksi berjalan.

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Published

2016-12-19

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2015)

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Articles

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