Efek Spillovers dari Kebijakan Moneter Amerika Serikat terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia

Authors

  • Muhammad Rafi Bakri Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan
  • Yohanes Rama Adiwicaksana Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian
  • Siti Aubrey Salsabila Tisarani Putri Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan
  • Winona Fahira Aundri Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31685/7j2qhq26

Keywords:

Spillover Effect, shock, Kebijakan Moneter

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the shock caused by the United States (US) monetary policy on the Indonesian economy. To determine the impact of the shock, the authors use the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. The author also uses the Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response, and Variance Decomposition methods to complete the analysis results. The data used is secondary data in the form of exchange rates, US inflation, Indonesian inflation, The Fed's interest rate, imports and exports from 1967-2020. The results showed that the shock to the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah and the US inflation rate significantly affected the Indonesian economy in the long term. The Indonesian government needs to consider appropriate policies or strategies to anticipate shocks from these variables so that the economy stays on track.

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Published

2025-09-18

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)

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