Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap USD dengan Menggunakan Model GARCH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v20i2.187Abstract
Makalah ini menggunakan teknik ekonometrik Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) untuk meramalkan perubahan nilai tukar yang berfrekuensi tinggi di Indonesia. GARCH, suatu model non-linear, umumnya digunakan untuk data keuangan berfrekuensi tinggi, seperti nilai tukar harian Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat. Penelitian ini menilai perilaku dari nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat dengan membuat model dari perubahan nilai tukar harian dalam bentuk logaritma untuk periode 3 Januari 2000 sampai 16 Desember 2015. Periode ini meliputi era volatilitas tinggi dan turbulensi keuangan, seperti yang terjadi pada semester kedua tahun 2015 ketika nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat turun menjadi Rp.14.500. Menggunakan model GARCH dalam menetapkan heteroskedastisitas, studi ini menemukan bahwa model GARCH sangat mencerminkan sifat empiris natural logaritma dari nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat pada tingkat signifikansi 1%.References
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