Pengaruh Quantitative Easing dan Tapering Off serta Indikator Makroekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v4i1.520

Keywords:

Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Quantitative Easing, Tapering Off

Abstract

Since the 2008 financial crisis, rupiah’s volatility has experienced high volatility. This volatility is indicated associated with other macroeconomic indicators such as BI-Rate, export-import ratio, CPI, IHSG, and foreign exchange reserves against the rupiah exchange rate. In addition, in terms of an external factor, there is a nonconventional monetary policy package taken by The Fed to restore the economy of the United States after the 2008 financial crisis called Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tapering Off (TO). This study aims to see the effect of these two policies and macroeconomic variables on the rupiah exchange rate. This research uses time-series data from January 2005-December 2017 is carried out using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Based on the result, we concluded that the model obtained was ARDL (3,0,5,0,4,3). We found that rupiah exchange rate 1st and 3rd lag, export-import ratio 3rd lag, foreign exchange reserves current period, CPI 4th lag, IHSG current period, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd lag, and the QE policy significantly affect the rupiah’s volatility. This shows that the stability of the rupiah is not only based on fundamental economic variables but also based on the monetary policies of other countries.

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Published

2020-04-30

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Vol. 4 No. 1 (2020)

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