Pengaruh KPR terhadap Keterjangkauan Harga Properti Residensial

Pihri Buhaerah
| Abstract views: 105 | views: 72

Abstract

Abstract

This paper describes and examines the linkage of house mortgages on residential property price growth in Indonesia by using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative research approach is used to elaborate descriptively the role of house mortgages on residential property prices. To strengthen it, this study then employs one of time series regression analyses namely autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period of 2002Q1-2017Q4. To achieve the objective of this study, data was collected from secondary sources such as Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The qualitative approach shows that under lack of land banking and public housing zones, the expansion of house mortgages affect positively residential property prices both for private and public housing.  The argument has been confirmed from regression analysis by using the ARDL model. The estimation results using the ARDL model show that there is a positive and significant relationship between house mortgage on residential property price growth both in the long-run and in the short-run.

 

Keywords: house mortgage, property residential prices, land, ARDL model

JEL Classification: C22, E51, G21

 

 

Abstrak

Studi ini membahas secara deskriptif dan empiris peran pembiayaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Pendekatan kualitatif digunakan untuk menggambarkan secara deskriptif peran pembiyaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial. Selanjutnya, untuk memperkuat argument tersebut, studi ini kemudian melibatkan salah satu teknik analisis regresi data runtun waktu yaitu model autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) untuk periode 2002Q1-2017Q4. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian, data dikumpulkan dari beragam sumber data sekunder seperti Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasilnya, dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif menunjukkan bahwa tanpa pelembagaan bank tanah dan zonasi khusus perumahan rakyat, skema pembiayaan kepemilikan rumah hanya akan melambungkan harga properti residensial. Argumen ini juga terkonfirmasi dari analisis regresi dengan menggunakan model ARDL. Hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan model ARDL menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara kredit kepemilikan rumah dengan harga property residensial baik untuk jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.

 

 

Kata Kunci: Kredit pemilikan rumah, harga properti residensial, tanah, model ARDL

JEL Classification: C22, E51, G21

 

Full Text:

PDF

References

Bank for International Settlements. (2018). Residential Property Prices: Detailed Series (Nominal). Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/statistics/pp_detailed.htm?m=6%7C288%7C593

Bank Indonesia. (2018). Harga Properti Residensial 2012-2017.

BPS. Persentase Penduduk Daerh Perkotaan menurut Provinsi 2010-2035, Retrieved from https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2014/02/18/1276/persentase-penduduk-daerah-perkotaan-menurut-provinsi-2010-2035.html

BPS. (2014). Keadaaan Pekerja di Indonesia: Agustus 2014.

BPS. (2018). Keadaan Pekerja di Indonesia: Agustus 2018.

Engle, R. F., & Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, Vol. 55 No.2, 251-276.

Ekananda, M. (2016). Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series. Jakarta: Mitra Wacana Media.

Gnagey, M., & Tans, R. (2018). Property-Price Determinants in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesia Economic Studies (BIES), Vol.54 No.1, April.

Granger. C.W.J. (1981). Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 16, 121-130.

Greenwald, D., & Guren, A. (2019). Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices? (September 30, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3535224

He, X., Jing Cai, X., & Hamori, S. (2018). Bank Credit and Housing Prices in China: Evidence from a TFP-VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(4), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11040090.

IMF. (2011). Global Financial Stability Report. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2016/12/31/Durable-Financial-Stability-Getting-There-from-Here

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, Vol. 59 No.6, 1551-1580.

Justiniano, A., Primiceri, G.E., & Tambalotti, A. (2015). Credit Supply and the Housing Boom, Staff Reports No.709. New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Kusuma, T.H. (2018). Analysis of Factors Affecting House Ownership in Indonesia. American Research Journal of Business and Management, 4(1):1-12.

Lombardi, M., Mohanty, M., & Shim, I. (2017). The Real Effects of Household Debt in the Short Run and Long Run, BIS Working Papers No. 607, Bank for International Settlements.

Undang-Undang No.39 Tahun 1999 tentang Hak Asasi Manusia. Lembaran Negara RI Tahun 1999 No.165. Sekretariat Negara. Jakarta.

Keputusan Menteri Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat Nomor 552/KPTS/M/2016 tentang Batas Penghasilan Kelompok Sasaran KPR Bersubsidi, Batasan Harga Jual Rumah Sejahtera Tapak dan Satuan Rumah Sejahtera Susun, serta Besaran Subsidi Bantuan Uang Muka Perumahan

Permadi, D. (2018). Penyediaan Perumahan yang Layak dan Terjangkau, presentasi yang disampaikan pada Diskusi Terbatas "Penyediaan Perumahan Rakyat" di Komnas HAM, 12 April 2018.

Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, ed. S. Strom, chap. 11, 371-413. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Phang, SY. (2013). Housing Finance System: Market Failures and Government Failures., UK: Palgrave Macmillan.

Pusat Pengelolaan Dana Pembiayaan Perumahan (P2DP2). Data Backlog Kepemilikan Rumah. Retrieved from http://ppdpp.id/data-backlog/

Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1945

Undang-Undang No.39 Tahun 1999 Tentang Hak Asasi Manusia

UN-Habitat. (2011). Affordable Land and Housing in Asia: Volume 2. Retrieved from https://unhabitat.org/books/affordable-land-and-housing-in-asia-2/.

Rahadi, RA., Sudarso, KW., dan Koesrindartoto, DP., dan Symwil, IB. (2015). Factors Influencing the Price of Housing in Indonesia. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol.8 Issue 2, 169-188.

Rolnik, R. (2012). Special Rapporteur on Adequate Housing as A Component of the Right to An Adequate Standard of Living. General Assembly, United Nations, Sixty-Seventh Session, agenda item 70(b). Retrieved from https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Issues/Housing/A-67-286.pdf

Ryan-Collins, J., Lloyd, T., dan Macfarlane, L. (2017). Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing. London: Zed Books Ltd.

Valverde, S.C., & Fernandez F.R. (2010). The Relationship between Mortgage Markets and House Prices: Does Financial Instability Make the Difference?, Center for Financial Innovation and Stability (CenFIS) Working Paper 10-02. Atlanta: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Copyright (c) 2020 Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.