MODEL PROYEKSI EKSPOR DAN IMPOR - VOLUME DAN HARGA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v14i3.62Keywords:
Proyeksi, Ekspor, Impor, Perdagangan Luar Negeri, Penyesuaian MusimanAbstract
Kinerja ekspor dan impor Indonesia selama periode 2000 - 2009 cenderung mengalami peningkatan walaupun sempat mengalami penurunan saat terjadi krisis ekonomi global 2008/2009. Variabel ekonomi yang mempengaruhi ekspor dan impor diidentifikasi seperti permintaan dunia, volume perdagangan dunia, harga ekspor, dan nilai tukar. Model proyeksi difokuskan kepada pertumbuhan (growth) volume dan harga baik ekspor maupun impor. Model ekonometrik yang dikembangkan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (OLS) dengan meregresikan variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi volume dan harga—ekspor dan impor.References
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