DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v15i2.91Keywords:
Fiscal Balance, Oil prices, Output Gap, PDBAbstract
This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.References
Bezdek,V, Dybczak,K and Krejdl,A, Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 2003.
Chakraborty,P and Chakraborty L, Is Fiscal Policy Contracyclical in India: An Empirical Analysis, MRPA Paper No.7604, Muenchen,2006.
DavisJ.M, Ossowski,R and Fedelino, Fiscal Policy Formulation in Oil Producing Countries, International Monetary Fund, Washington,2003.
Data dan Statistik Energi, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Indonesia, http://dtwh2.esdm.go.id/dtwh3/mod pri/main.php
Nota Keuangan dan RAPBN Tahun 1991-2010, Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia
Rahardja, Pratama, Teori Ekonomi Makro, Penerbit Salemba Empat, Jakarta,2001.
Restrepo, Jorge, IMF-STI Material Presentation, Course on Macro Economic Management and Fiscal Issues, Singapore, 2011. Materi dapat diunduh di https://uat-ins.imf.org/fiIe.php/29/Course/Presentation Slides/L02 - Fiscal Accounts Analysis Measurement.pdf
Wong, Huey C, Adjustment and the Internal-External Balance, International Monetary Fund, Washington,2003.
http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2011/02/24/14462758/Harga.Minyak. Mentah.Bisa.220.Dollar.AS. diakses tanggal 25 Februari 2011.
http: //id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kebiiakan fiskal diakses tanggal 28 November 2010.
http://reforminer.com/wp-content/pdf/Periodical Review -
ReforMiner Institute.pdf. diakses tanggal 5 Desember 2010.
https://uat-ins.imf.org/file.php/29/L9 -
Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil- Producing Countries.pdf. diakses tanggal 15 Januari 2011.
https://uat-ins.imf.org/file.php/29/Course/Presentation Slides/L04 - Fiscal Policy and Growth.pdf. diakses tanggal 10 Desember 2010.
http://www.theiakartaglobe.com/opinion/turning-todavs-oil-and-gas-into- tomorrows-gold-mine/434306. diakses tanggal 15 Maret 2011.
Published
Issue
Section
License
STATEMENT OF AUTHENTICITY AND COPYRIGHT RELEASE
I hereby certify that:
- The article (Article title) is authentic and never being published previously or will be published in other publication as well as not a plagiarism in any form.
- The article does not have any issue with other parties, regarding of the publication copyright.
- All the authors have read this statement and agree with the name and sequence.
- Hereby, I transfer the copyright of my article (Article title) to the KEK Editorial Board . this copyright transfer includes a right to reproduce a photograph for the similar article and its translation. This is also including a right to upload the article into a computer system which disseminated widely on the internet.
- Hereby, I agree with my article (Article title) to be published by KEK Volume (xx) Edition (x), under Creative Common Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 licensing. This is also including a right to upload the article into a computer system which disseminated widely on the internet.
Name : (Full Name)
Date : (Signing date)